ISLAMABAD: The finance ministry, in its ‘Monthly Economic Update & Outlook October 2023’ has projected that inflation in October will remain at 27%-29%. The report also stated that higher markup payments will pose significant challenges for fiscal consolidation efforts.
The government had estimated Rs.7.3 trillion for debt servicing out of the total budget layout of Rs.14.484 trillion. However, the cost of public debt has increased due to the jacking up of policy rates by the central bank.
It is pertinent to mention here that debt servicing is the single largest component in total expenditures. The rate of increase in defence budget, development budget, cost of govt running expenditure were all lesser than that of debt servicing.
The finance ministry stated that the primary concern on the expenditure side was the rise in the cost of servicing public debt. With the rise in SBP policy rates to 22% and weaker PKR fueling the rise in servicing costs, debt servicing costs increased 45% in the first quarter to Rs 1.4 trillion.
The report states that despite the increase in debt servicing cost, the government managed to limit growth in expenditures through a prudent reduction in untargeted subsidies and a reduction in spending on new projects and schemes under the PSDP.
The Monthly Economic Indicator (MEI) estimated for the month of September 2023 stood positive on the back of improved high frequency variables such as LSM, exports, cement despatches etc.
MEI is expected to be positive throughout the outgoing fiscal year due to a rebound in domestic economic activities. MEI is developed as a tool to distribute the past annual GDP numbers, reported by the PBS, on a monthly/quarterly basis, and to nowcast GDP growth for the fiscal year in which the National Accounts are not yet available on the same frequency.
According to the report, the first quarter of the current fiscal year demonstrates that the economy is yielding positive results from development and stabilisation measures. In real sector of the economy, cotton and rice production for 2023-24 has posed exceptional growth of 126.6 % and 18 %, respectively.
Similarly, LSM increased by 2.5 % on a year-on-year basis in Aug-23 and on a month-on-month basis, it bounced back by 8.4 % against the decline of 3.7 % in July. Moreover, the external account has improved considerably and foreign exchange buffers are being built up. On the fiscal front, the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation efforts and maintaining fiscal discipline is evident through better fiscal accounts during Jul-Aug, FY2024.
In the coming months, it is expected that overall economic activity will remain positive throughout the outgoing fiscal year due to a rebound in domestic economic activities and improvement in inflationary pressures.
The report also credits the recent coordinated efforts by the government organisations to address macroeconomic imbalances, which will help in realizing sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the medium-to-long term.
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