The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) urgent mission is scheduled to visit Islamabad from November 11 to 15, to assess fiscal performance and discuss potential corrective measures, including the introduction of a mini-budget.
According to media reports, the IMF team, led by Nathan Porter, is aimed to address recent shifts in the macroeconomic and fiscal framework under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The decision for an in-person review followed unsuccessful virtual meetings, as Pakistani authorities struggled to reassure the IMF of their commitment to economic reforms.
This “SOS mission” aims to conduct a mid-cycle evaluation, ahead of the first formal review, which is expected in early 2025. The IMF felt that waiting until February or March 2025 might delay crucial corrective actions.
Despite positive fiscal results in the first quarter (July-September)—largely due to non-tax revenue from the State Bank of Pakistan—the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) reported a substantial tax collection shortfall, with a potential gap of Rs321 billion projected for the first half of FY25. Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) growth also fell short, while inflation rates dropped and imports declined, further affecting fiscal targets.
Amid discussions, economic managers may consider further cuts to the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), as only Rs22 billion of the allocated Rs1,100 billion has been utilized so far.
