Fertilizer volumes to see strong December rebound, but 2024 sales still lag

In a promising turn of events for Pakistan's agricultural sector, the country's fertilizer industry is poised to end 2024 on a high note, with urea sales expected to surge in December. However, this late-year rally isn't quite enough to offset the overall decline in fertilizer sales for the full year, according to recent reports from two of Pakistan's leading investment banks.

Both Topline Securities and BMA Capital, Karachi-based investment banks, project a significant uptick in urea sales for December 2024. Topline Securities anticipates urea sales to reach 1.002 million tons, marking a substantial 60% year-on-year increase compared to December 2023's 628,000 tons. BMA Capital's forecast is similarly optimistic, projecting December urea sales at 1.000 million tons, representing a 59% year-on-year growth.

This sharp increase is attributed to seasonal demand during the peak Rabi season, with both reports noting a month-on-month growth of 53% from November 2024. The surge in December sales is particularly noteworthy when compared to the five-year average for the month, which Topline Securities reports as 857,000 tons.