U.S. oil and gas companies are expected to keep capital expenditures under control in 2025, focusing on generating returns for shareholders despite President Donald Trump’s calls for increased drilling.
As the oil industry reports fourth-quarter results, the outlook for the coming year is expected to reflect a continued emphasis on cost efficiency and technology-driven production growth rather than a significant increase in new drilling.
Global oil prices are projected to remain lower in 2025, with Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel, down from $81 in 2024. This follows a post-pandemic demand rebound and challenges in China’s economy.
Exxon Mobil plans a significant increase in production, especially in the Permian Basin and its operations in Guyana, while other companies such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental are expected to maintain conservative growth strategies. Chevron is anticipated to increase production by about 3% in 2025, while ConocoPhillips plans modest growth and is focused on returning cash to shareholders.
Chevron is also expected to announce a dividend increase, while other companies such as Diamondback Energy and Occidental are expected to prioritize free cash flow over growth.
Overall, the U.S. exploration and production sector is targeting up to 5% production growth, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat or slightly lower year-over-year.
