Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after the United States announced exclusions on some tariffs and Chinese data showed a sharp rebound in crude imports for March.
Gains were limited, however, by persistent concerns that the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dampen fuel demand.
Brent crude futures increased by 83 cents, or 1.3%, to $65.59 a barrel by midday in London. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 84 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.34. The announcement late Friday that the Trump administration would exclude smartphones, computers, and some other electronic goods from tariffs lifted sentiment across financial markets, although investors remained cautious due to the unpredictable approach to trade policy.
President Trump also said on Sunday that the administration would soon announce a new tariff rate on imported semiconductors. Meanwhile, China reported a strong rebound in crude oil imports in March, rising nearly 5% from a year earlier, supported by increased deliveries from Iran and Russia.
Despite Monday’s gains, Brent and WTI prices have fallen by about $10 a barrel since the start of April. Oil price forecasts have been revised downward amid the intensifying trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Expectations for global oil demand growth have also been tempered, with projections for only a modest year-on-year increase in the final quarter of 2025.
Market structure reflected the growing concerns, as the Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 shifted into contango, signaling fears of oversupply. In contango markets, near-term prices are lower than those further out, indicating a lack of immediate supply tightness.
In the United States, oil and natural gas drilling activity slowed, with the rig count falling for the third consecutive week. Some support for oil prices could emerge from developments on the geopolitical front.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could move to halt Iranian oil exports as part of pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program.
Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials held in Oman over the weekend were described as positive and constructive, and both sides agreed to reconvene next week. Progress in these negotiations may help ease some of the sanctions-related risks facing the oil market.
