Oil prices jumped about 4% on Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it would maintain its current pace of output increases in July, matching levels set in May and June.
Brent crude futures rose $2.28, or 3.6%, to $65.06 a barrel by 1335 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.99, or 4.9%, to $63.78.
The gains reversed some of last week’s losses, when both benchmarks slipped more than 1%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, said Saturday it would raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing its strategy of gradual increases while attempting to enforce discipline among members who have exceeded production quotas.
Ahead of the decision, expectations had circulated that the group might opt for a larger increase. Oil traders noted that the 411,000-barrel figure had already been priced into futures markets, softening the impact of the announcement. A surprise hike would likely have triggered a sharp sell-off.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has notified OPEC that it does not plan to reduce its oil production. Reports last week quoted the country’s deputy energy minister as saying oil would need to fall to around $58 a barrel or lower to make overproduction economically unviable.
Looking ahead, expectations remain that OPEC+ could implement a final 410,000-barrel-per-day production hike in August. Market participants are watching closely for decisions on future output, particularly as global activity data and seasonal summer demand remain strong.
Geopolitical tensions also played a role in boosting prices. Over the weekend, Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia added to the geopolitical risk premium priced into crude futures.
