KARACHI — Pakistan is expected to witness a net outflow of $31.13 billion in foreign currency assets due to maturing external loans, deposits, and securities, according to the latest liquidity risk report released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
The projected outflows are categorised based on residual maturity. The largest component of these maturing obligations—worth $19.23 billion—is scheduled to mature in the period spanning over three months to up to one year. This window represents the highest liquidity risk for the external account in the near term.
In the immediate future, an outflow of $8.36 billion is anticipated within the next 30 days, while another $3.54 billion is expected to mature within the one-to-three-month horizon.
The report also breaks down the obligations into principal and interest components. Principal repayments account for $27.58 billion of the total, with $16.81 billion concentrated in the more-than-three-months-to-one-year range. Interest payments are projected at an additional $3.55 billion.
Additionally, Pakistan’s aggregate short and long positions in foreign exchange forwards and futures reveal a net shortfall of $2.63 billion. The short position is not offset by any corresponding long position, highlighting further strain on available external buffers.
These figures underscore the challenges facing Pakistan’s external sector, particularly the importance of timely rollover of bilateral and multilateral loans, effective debt reprofiling, and continued access to foreign inflows, including through multilateral lending and market-based sources. The SBP report signals that reserve adequacy will hinge
