Electricity generation finally stabilizing after two years of declines

Pakistan finally has a growth line instead of a skid mark on its power-generation chart. Fresh numbers compiled by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) show total grid output at 127 159 GWh for fiscal year 2025, essentially flat year-on-year after a two-year slide. The real story lies in the turnaround of the final quarter: April-to-June deliveries jumped 7% compared with the same period a year ago, clawing back the losses recorded in the first nine months of the fiscal year.

What changed? Analysts at Topline Securities point to an “off-grid levy” introduced in February 2025. The surcharge makes self-generated units (mostly gas and furnace-oil captive plants behind factory gates) pay a contribution to national capacity charges. That single stroke nudged many industrial users back onto the network, boosting dispatch volumes in Q4.

Monthly data from Arif Habib Ltd (AHL) capture the pivot: in June 2025 the system produced 13 744 GWh, up 2% on the prior year and 8% on May. Hydel output led the gain, surging 14% year-on-year, while imported-coal plants ran 119% harder, plugging the gap left by gas and RLNG turbines that slowed on feed-stock constraints.

Alongside volume stability, average fuel cost for the year dropped to Rs8.6 per kWh, down 2% on fiscal year 20-24. June’s headline fuel cost was even lower at Rs7.87; once transmission losses and prior adjustments are factored in, consumers will see a refund of roughly Rs0.65 per kWh in their August bills.

The mix, meanwhile, continued its slow tilt toward domestic resources. Hydropower supplied 31% of units, nuclear 18%, indigenous coal 12% and wind about 3%; expensive furnace-oil generators accounted for a token 0.4%. Three small hydel schemes (SK, Pehur and Marala) plus the revived 150-MW Lakhra mine-mouth plant eased onto the bars during the year.