The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan’s GDP growth projection downward to 3% for fiscal year 2025, reducing its earlier estimate of 3.2%, according to the latest “World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.”
The report also forecasts a 4% growth rate for Pakistan in fiscal year 2026. In comparison, the World Bank has estimated GDP growth at 2.8% for FY25, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) aligns with the IMF’s revised figure of 3%.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has projected real GDP growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.5% for the ongoing fiscal year.
Globally, the IMF projects economic growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019.
The forecast for 2025 remains largely unchanged from October 2024, with upward revisions for the United States offsetting lower expectations for other major economies.
The report anticipates global headline inflation to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.5% in 2026. However, inflation is expected to return to target levels sooner in advanced economies compared to emerging markets and developing countries.
The IMF warned of medium-term risks to global growth, tilted toward the downside, citing elevated policy uncertainty and potential disruptions to the disinflation process, which could affect fiscal sustainability and financial stability.
The report underscores the need for policies that balance inflation control and real economic activity, rebuild economic buffers, and boost long-term growth through structural reforms and enhanced multilateral cooperation.
