ISLAMABAD: Already grappling with the impact of elevated fuel costs, consumers across Pakistan are likely to face another blow as petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices are expected to rise once again starting July 16, 2025.
According to industry estimates, petrol prices may jump by Rs6.60 per litre, pushing the rate from the current Rs266.79 to Rs273.39 — a 2.5% hike. High-speed diesel, which is extensively used in the transport and agriculture sectors, is projected to increase by Rs5.27 per litre, moving from Rs272.98 to Rs278.25 — up 1.9%.
Such price revisions are expected to have a cascading effect across the economy. Diesel hikes, in particular, raise transportation costs for goods, which ultimately leads to higher retail prices for essential commodities. Meanwhile, petrol users — especially those relying on motorcycles and small vehicles for daily travel — will also feel the direct financial strain.
There is, however, some expected relief for lower-income households in rural areas. The prices of kerosene and light diesel oil (LDO), commonly used in rural cooking and lighting or off-grid machinery, may decline. Kerosene is projected to drop by Rs3.74 to Rs180.69 per litre, while LDO may see a Rs2.23 reduction, bringing it to Rs167.38 per litre. Still, these marginal gains are unlikely to offset the broader inflationary impact from petrol and diesel increases.
At the ex-refinery level, petrol is projected to increase by Rs4.67 per litre, and diesel by Rs1.32. These adjustments are being driven largely by exchange rate losses — with the rupee’s depreciation contributing an estimated Rs3 per litre to petrol and Rs2 per litre to diesel. Import premiums and the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) are also feeding into the final consumer prices.
Sources suggest that if global oil prices and the exchange rate remain stable over the coming days, the revised prices will likely be notified by the Finance Division by July 16. However, due to rising public concern over recent price hikes, the government may choose to absorb part of the expected increase. Officials indicated that petrol might only go up by around Rs2 per litre, and the HSD rate could see a marginal reduction in a politically motivated move to cushion the public impact.
This potential hike comes just two weeks after a major increase in fuel prices at the start of the month. On July 1, 2025, the government — acting on recommendations from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) — raised petrol prices by Rs8.36 and diesel by Rs10.39 per litre, citing higher global crude prices and the rupee’s weakness, particularly amid tensions in the Middle East.
Those earlier hikes had already pushed petrol to Rs266.79 and diesel to Rs272.98 per litre, triggering concerns over inflationary pressure in transportation, food, and consumer goods. If the July 16 adjustments are implemented as projected, the cumulative increase in petrol prices in just over two weeks would amount to nearly Rs15 per litre.
The final decision now rests with the Finance Division and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who are expected to weigh both fiscal considerations and political optics before making the new prices official.
