The caretaker administration under Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar has set a new precedent in bank borrowing, with figures reaching nearly Rs4 trillion from July 1, 2023, to January 19, 2024.
This surge in borrowing marks a significant 185% increase compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year, where the government had borrowed Rs1.398 trillion, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan.
This fiscal year’s borrowing has already outpaced the total amount borrowed in FY23, raising concerns about the economic implications as Pakistan grapples with a substantial debt load.
Despite achieving revenue collection targets for the first six months, the government’s borrowing spree continues unabated, driven by the need to cover escalating expenditures.
Inflation has been a double-edged sword for the economy, averaging over 28% in the past seven months, which, while boosting revenue through higher liquidity, has also necessitated increased government spending.
The financial strain is further compounded by sluggish economic growth, insufficient revenue generation, and the burden of domestic and foreign debts.
Additionally, the government faces pressure to address the power sector’s circular debts, now standing at Rs5.7 trillion.
The borrowing strategy, with returns around 21%, represents a costly endeavor for the caretaker government, consuming over half of the budget for debt servicing alone.
This approach has been critiqued by financial experts and acknowledged by the government as a significant economic challenge.
Banking institutions have emerged as the primary beneficiaries of this situation, reporting doubled profits in 2023. With government borrowings in FY22 and FY23 recorded at Rs3.448 trillion and Rs3.716 trillion respectively, the trend towards increased borrowing seems unlikely to reverse in the near term.
The upcoming general elections on February 8 and the anticipated formation of a new government may prolong political uncertainties, dampening investment prospects.
Observers note the challenging economic climate, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a modest 2% GDP growth for FY24 and high base lending rates discouraging new ventures.
Amidst these challenges, the outlook for economic growth in FY24 remains guarded, echoing the previous fiscal year’s negative growth rate of -0.6%.
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