FBR reports 9% tax-to-GDP ratio for FY2023-24

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) reported a tax-to-GDP ratio of 9% for the fiscal year ending on June 30, 2024, according to the Evidence-Based Revenue Forecasting Report for 2024-25. 

This ratio has shown an upward trend from 8.5% in the previous fiscal year, improving to 9.0%  based on Quarter 1 data for FY2023-24.

The FBR has set a revenue target of Rs11.17 trillion for FY2024-25, which is 20.8% higher than the expected collection of Rs9.25 trillion for FY2023-24. 

The projected revenue includes Rs4.586 trillion from Direct Taxes, Rs4.327 trillion from Sales Tax, Rs0.70 trillion from Federal Excise Duty, and Rs1.559 trillion from Customs Duty, all without additional budgetary measures. The taxation measures approved by Parliament for the 2024-25 budget are estimated to generate Rs1.8 trillion.

The report highlights that FBR’s revenue collection has generally increased over the past five years, except in FY2019 when it saw a slight decline. The collection surpassed Rs7 trillion for the first time in FY2023, and the provisional collection for the current fiscal year stands at Rs9.3 trillion.

During July-March FY2023-24, FBR’s revenue collection grew by 30.2% compared to the same period last year, with all tax heads showing positive growth. 

The traditional methodology was used to forecast revenues for FY2024-25, predicting an increase of Rs1.922 trillion over the base year FY2023-24, resulting in an expected revenue collection of Rs11.17 trillion.

The report concludes that the revenue forecast for FY2025 is estimated at Rs11.17 trillion without budgetary measures.