Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in Pakistan recorded robust sales of 1.58 million tons in November 2024, marking the highest monthly volumes since October 2022. This represents a 15% year-on-year (YoY) increase, largely attributed to reduced petroleum prices, macroeconomic stabilisation, and a decline in smuggling activities, according to various reports.
High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales surged to a 30-month high of 788,000 tons, reflecting a 21% YoY and 15% month-on-month (MoM) increase. Analysts at Topline Securities highlighted that the increase was driven by a 15% YoY reduction in diesel prices and heightened seasonal demand due to ongoing Kharif crop harvesting. Anand Kumar at IMS Securities emphasised the role of stricter anti-smuggling measures in supporting this rise.
Motor Spirit (MS) sales reached 666,000 tons, a 17% YoY increase but remained flat on a MoM basis. The stagnation in petrol demand is linked to reduced mobility in Punjab due to heavy smog, as noted by IMS. On the other hand, Furnace Oil (FO) sales plummeted by 55% YoY and 36% MoM to 37,000 tons, primarily due to lower utilization of FO-based power plants.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) regained market dominance, with a 51% market share in November, up from 47% in October. PSO’s HSD sales accounted for 54% of the market, bolstered by a 15% MoM increase. Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) reported an 8% YoY rise in sales to 131,000 tons, with HSD sales soaring 31% YoY. Meanwhile, Shell Pakistan’s sales rose by 12% YoY to 103,000 tons but declined 2% MoM.
The cumulative OMC sales for the first five months of FY25 reached 6.8 million tons, a 5% YoY increase. While seasonal factors and anti-smuggling efforts have boosted sales, analysts warn of potential headwinds. “Volume growth may moderate due to the onset of winter, school holidays in mid-December, and extreme smog in Punjab,” IMS Securities noted. However, lower petroleum prices are expected to cushion any decline in demand.
