Oil prices were largely unchanged on Monday, with investors closely watching developments related to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that could ease sanctions affecting global supply flows.
Brent crude futures edged lower by 8 cents, or 0.11%, to $74.66 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $70.69 a barrel.
Market participants continued to track the progress of peace discussions, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that his administration had initiated talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. If sanctions are relieved, analysts believe that Brent crude prices could fall between $5 and $10 per barrel, as Russian oil would no longer need to be transported to distant markets like India and China.
Trump also indicated on Sunday that he could soon meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the conflict. Initial talks between the U.S. and Russia are expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.
Meanwhile, concerns about a potential global trade war are limiting price movements, as Trump ordered U.S. officials to explore the possibility of reciprocal tariffs against countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods, with recommendations expected by April 1.
Despite these developments, oil prices were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and reduced oil flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The dollar index hovered near a two-month low following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail data for January.
Oil flows via the CPC, which transports oil from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field to the Russian port of Novorossiisk, were reduced after a drone strike targeted the Kropotkinskaya pumping station in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region. While drone attacks have had limited impacts on Russian crude exports so far, concerns over their rising frequency and potential disruption of supply remain.
In the U.S., energy companies added oil and natural gas rigs for a third consecutive week, marking the first such increase since December 2023, according to Baker Hughes.
