The government raised Rs392 billion through the auction of Market Treasury Bills (T-bills), significantly below its target of Rs800 billion.Â
The amount collected was also lower than the maturity amount of Rs513 billion, according to the auction results released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
T-bill yields remained largely unchanged across various tenors, except for the 12-month paper, which saw a slight increase. The yield on the one-month T-bill stood at 12.0498%, while the three-month and six-month papers remained steady at 11.8242% and 11.6699%, respectively. The 12-month T-bill yield increased by 26 basis points (bps) to 11.8999%.
The auction received bids totaling Rs1.575 trillion, but analysts noted that market focus is shifting toward the upcoming inflation data release. According to Topline Securities, Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is projected to decline to its lowest level in over three decades, ranging between 0.5% and 1.0% year-on-year (YoY), down from 1.5% in the previous month.
The research firm also revised its inflation forecast for FY25 downward from 6-7% to 5-6%, citing lower oil prices and stability in wheat and other nonperishable food prices.Â
It suggested that the central bank could reduce the policy rate by another 100 bps based on FY26 inflation estimates. However, with the upcoming International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, the FY26 budget, and rising imports, the SBP may hold off on further rate cuts until the second half of 2025.
Earlier this month, the SBP unexpectedly paused its easing cycle, keeping the benchmark policy rate at 12% amid concerns over inflation risks linked to volatile food prices and global tariff hikes.
