The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that its next global growth forecast, due in late July, will reflect both recent trade deals and new tariffs.
The IMF noted that it will include developments such as the tariff pause announced in April, trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries, and new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the outlook will consider recent positive steps, including a major tariff cut between the U.S. and China and an initial trade deal between the U.S. and Britain. These may help support growth compared to the April forecast. However, she added that global economic prospects remain uncertain as trade negotiations continue.
Kozack said the Fund will also factor in U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, which raise duties on steel and aluminium imports to 50% for all countries. The tariff pause that began on April 9 is scheduled to end on July 8, though the U.S. may extend the deadline for countries engaged in talks.
She said recent data shows mixed trends. Some countries increased trade activity in the first quarter to avoid higher tariffs, followed by a slowdown and shifts in trade patterns in the second quarter. She added that more trade deals or policy changes could still influence the final forecast.
In April, the IMF cut its 2025 global growth forecast by half a percentage point to 2.8%, already factoring in the early effects of Trump’s trade policies. The upcoming update will take into account the full range of recent developments.
The World Bank, earlier this week, lowered its own 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, citing rising tariffs and global uncertainty.
