GDP growth of FY25 revised upward to 3.04%

ISLAMABAD– The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved revised economic growth figures for the fiscal year 2024-25, revealing a stronger performance than previously estimated, with the annual GDP growth rate climbing to 3.04%.

The updated estimate, approved during the 114th meeting of the NAC held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, marks a significant upward revision from the previous projection of 2.68%. The committee also approved the final growth figures for the fourth quarter (April-June) of FY2025, which saw a robust expansion of 5.66%.

The NAC revised growth figures upwards for the first three quarters of the year, indicating a steadily accelerating economy. The growth for Q1 was revised from 1.37% to 1.80%, Q2 from 1.53% to 1.94%, and Q3 from 2.40% to 2.79%. These improvements were primarily driven by stronger-than-expected performances in the agriculture and industry sectors.

The overall annual growth of 3.04% was supported by improvements across all major sectors:

• Agriculture: Growth was revised sharply upward to 1.51% from an earlier estimate of 0.56%. This was largely due to a spectacular 19.55% growth in “other crops,” including onions, mangos, and green fodder, which offset a significant decline in important crops like wheat and cotton.

• Industry: The sector grew by 5.26%, up from the previous 4.77% estimate. A massive 28.53% growth in the electricity, gas, and water supply sector—attributed to higher subsidies and a low base from the previous year—was a key driver. The construction industry also posted a healthy 6.63% growth.

• Services: The services sector grew by 3.0%, a slight improvement from 2.91%. Most sub-sectors contributed positively, with finance and insurance activities showing notable improvement.

The fourth quarter was particularly strong, with the economy expanding by 5.66%. The industrial sector led this charge with an explosive 19.95% growth on the back of electricity, gas and water. The services sector also grew at a steady 3.72%.

Due to this new calculation, the total size of Pakistan’s economy for FY2025 is now estimated at US$ 407.2 billion. The per capita income for the year stands at US$ 1,812.

The NAC forum appreciated the efforts of the PBS national accounts team and key stakeholders, including the Ministries of Planning and Finance and the State Bank of Pakistan, in preparing the revised estimates.