KARACHI: Consumer price index (CPI) inflation general increased by 5.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 4.8 per cent in the previous month, and 3.2 per cent in May 2016. On a month-on-month basis, it remained stagnant in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 1.4 per cent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.2 per cent in May 2016, the data revealed by Pakistan Bureau of Statistic (PBS) showed on Thursday.
Analyst of a brokerage house said, “House rent was the top contributor to inflation in May 2017 as it has the highest weight 21.8 per cent in CPI.” Meanwhile, the education medical and motor fuel expenses also played their role in the CPI this year, he added.
The year-on-year increase in inflation for house rent was 6.94 per cent. One reason for increasing house rent is the high cost of land and housing units as the need for houses is growing every year. The gap between demand and availability of housing units has already crossed the digit of eight million.
The analyst forecasts CPI at 4.3 per cent YoY as against 2.86 per cent YoY in current fiscal year. The main factors that would drive inflation in view for the next two months are: Ramzan impact on food prices; strong domestic cotton prices (Avg. Rs 6,867/maund in April 2017 vs. Avg. Rs 5,700/maund in June 2016) keeping clothing index elevated in the coming months, and an impact of increment in custom/regulatory duties on consumer products in the budget.
“This time the ministry of finance decreased the petroleum prices for June 2017 and the decision of government would support the core inflation in this month,” another analyst said. “We are looking inflation above 5-5.2 per cent in June 2017 only because of higher food prices in Ramzan.”
The data said, core inflation measured by non-food, non-energy CPI (Core NFNE) increased by 5.5 per cent on the YoY basis in May 2017 as compared to increase of 5.5 per cent in the previous month and 4.6 per cent in May 2016.
On the MoM basis, it increased by 0.2 per cent in May 2017 as compared to increase of 1.3 per cent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.2 per cent in the corresponding month of last year May 2016.
Core inflation, measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean CPI (Core Trimmed) increased by 4.8 per cent on the YoY basis in May 2017 as compared to 4.8 per cent in the previous month and by 3.6 per cent in May 2016.
On the MoM basis, it increased by 0.2 per cent in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 0.8 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.2 per cent in the corresponding month of May 2016.
Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased by 2.4 per cent in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 2.3 per cent a month earlier, and an increase of 0.6 per cent in May 2016. On the MoM basis, it decreased by 0.9 per cent in May 2017 as compared to a decrease of 0.9 per cent a month earlier, that of April, and a decrease of 1.0 per cent in May 2016.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis increased by 5.2 per cent in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 6.0 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 0.0 per cent in May 2016. WPI inflation on the MoM basis decreased by 0.2 per cent in May 2017 as compared to an increase of 0.9 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 0.6 per cent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. May 2016.
Month-on-month Top few commodities which varied from previous month are: Food items increase by potatoes (19.88 per cent), fresh fruits (10.12 per cent), pulse gram (2.35 per cent), rice (2.01 per cent), beverages (1.8 per cent), gram whole (1.76 per cent) and pulse washed-mash (1.24 per cent).
Decreased: tomatoes (40.03 per cent), onion (10.67 per cent), fresh vegetables (8.95 per cent), chicken (7.72 per cent), wheat (5.35 per cent), sugar (2.29 per cent) and wheat flour (1.43 per cent).
Non-food Items Increased: water supply (2.03 per cent), household servants (1.4 per cent), cleaning and laundry (1.29 per cent), marriage hall charges (1.23 per cent), motor vehicles (1.07 per cent), construction wage rates (1.06 per cent) and blades (1.03 per cent).
Kerosene oil was decreased by 0.45 per cent.
While year-on-year, the top few commodities which varied from the previous year, April 2016, are given below:
Food Items Increase: potatoes (70.09 per cent), tomatoes (59.27 per cent), eggs (18.12 per cent), fresh fruits (16.74 per cent), rice (15.35 per cent), fresh vegetables (14.83 per cent), tea (12.86 per cent), gram whole (11.56 per cent) and cigarettes (10.84 per cent).
Decreased: pulse mash (24.48 per cent), pulse moong (17.98 per cent), pulse masoor (14.22 per cent), onion (9.58 per cent), and chicken (7.39 per cent), sugar (6.82 per cent and pulse gram (5.32 per cent). Non-food items increased: drugs & medicines (20.61 per cent), education (11.17 per cent), motor fuel (10.14 per cent), doctors’ clinic fee (7.87 per cent), medical equipment (7.73 per cent), tailoring (7.71 per cent).
