ISLAMABAD: A research firm has forecasted that the share price of TRG Pakistan could decline to a range of Rs64-68 per share following Greentree Holdings Limited’s purchase of shares in the company through a tender offer priced at Rs75 per share at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).
The Islamabad High Court recently lifted a stay on Greentree Holdings’ tender offer, dismissing a petition by shareholders to prevent the company from buying TRG Pakistan shares. Greentree has now set the open period for its tender offer from March 25 to April 4, 2025, according to a revised timetable submitted to the PSX.
KTrade Research, in its recent analysis titled *”TRG Pakistan: Greentree Holdings’ Tender Offer for TRG Pakistan”*, estimates the company’s post-tender net asset value (NAV) to be in the range of Rs64-68 per share. This estimate takes into account the remaining cash reserves and the liquidity of illiquid assets.
The research firm calculated the post-tender price by evaluating TRG Pakistan’s assets, including its available cash and ongoing investments in Ibex and Afiniti. KTrade Research estimated TRG Pakistan’s assets at $34 million, assuming no additional legal or administrative expenses.
Greentree Holdings, an international holding company, is seeking to purchase an additional 35.1% stake in TRG Pakistan at Rs75 per share. If successful, this would increase its total ownership in the company to approximately 64.8%. The purchase is part of Greentree’s strategy to redistribute the proceeds from the monetisation of TRG’s operating assets, including a $52 million liquidity gain from selling stakes in Ibex, a Nasdaq-listed company.
The tender offer is also a continuation of Greentree’s efforts to return monetisation proceeds to TRG Pakistan’s shareholders, with a previous $86 million in share purchases in 2022 from the sale of eTelequote.
Shareholders eligible to tender their shares are those recorded in TRG Pakistan’s books as of the close of trading on February 21, 2025. KTrade Research advised that after the book closure, the trading price of TRG Pakistan shares is expected to reflect its NAV, rather than the tender price, as shares bought after the closure will not be eligible for the tender.
TRG Pakistan’s stock price closed at Rs70.31 per share on March 19, 2025, marking a 5.54% increase from the previous day with a turnover of 28.32 million shares.
The report also highlights TRG’s successful returns from two portfolio companies—eTelequote and Ibex—yielding a fivefold return on US dollar capital. However, the report notes that Afiniti’s potential has been hindered due to a decline in SaaS industry valuations, over-leverage, and the exit of its CEO and co-founder, which has led to shareholder disputes and missed opportunities.
For investors seeking an exit, the research suggests the tender offer could be an attractive opportunity, especially for those unwilling to wait for the resolution of legal issues. Market participants are closely watching how the tender offer progresses and whether Greentree’s expanded control will lead to strategic changes within TRG Pakistan.
