OPEC trimmed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, citing weaker-than-expected first-quarter data and the potential impact of new U.S. trade tariffs.
In its latest monthly report, the group said it now expects world oil demand to increase by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, down by 150,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
The organization also revised down its projections for global economic growth for both 2025 and 2026, warning that recent trade developments have introduced greater uncertainty into the near-term outlook. “The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the report said.
Despite the adjustment, OPEC’s forecast remains more optimistic than some industry peers. It continues to project that global oil demand will rise for years to come, in contrast to the International Energy Agency’s view that demand could peak later this decade as the transition to cleaner energy sources accelerates.
