The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has revised its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs, down from a previous estimate of 60 million. This adjustment reflects a decrease in global employment growth from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent, or roughly seven million fewer jobs.
The reduction is a direct result of the revised global economic outlook, with expected GDP growth now pegged at 2.8 percent, a decline from the earlier projection of 3.2 percent.
The ILO’s updated employment estimates, released as part of the World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update, are based on the most recent economic growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
In its report, the ILO also highlighted the vulnerability of around 84 million jobs across 71 countries, which are directly or indirectly linked to U.S. consumer demand. Elevated trade tensions are placing these jobs and their associated incomes at risk, with the Asia-Pacific region housing the majority of these jobs—56 million in total. The highest exposure is seen in Canada and Mexico, where 17.1 percent of jobs are tied to U.S. consumer demand.
ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo commented, “The global economy is growing at a slower pace than we anticipated. If geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions persist, and if we fail to address fundamental shifts in the world of work, the consequences on global labor markets could be severe.” He stressed the need for stronger social protections, skills development, and inclusive labor markets to ensure the benefits of technological advances reach all workers.
The report also pointed out concerning trends in income distribution. The share of global labor income—representing the portion of GDP allocated to workers—has declined from 53.0 percent in 2014 to 52.4 percent in 2024. Africa and the Americas have seen the largest decreases in this share. Had this share remained steady, global labor income would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, equating to an additional $290 per worker in real terms. This decline has contributed to rising inequality, signaling a growing disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation.
The report further noted a shift toward high-skilled occupations, with women leading the way. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled jobs rose from 21.2 percent to 23.2 percent, while the proportion of men in these occupations remained at around 18 percent. Despite this progress, occupational segregation remains, with women underrepresented in sectors like construction and overrepresented in roles like clerical and caregiving jobs.
Educational mismatches in the labor market remain significant, despite increased educational attainment worldwide. As of 2022, only 47.7 percent of workers held qualifications that matched their job requirements. While the share of under-educated workers has declined, the number of over-educated workers has grown, pointing to inefficiencies in matching skills to job needs.
The report also highlighted the impact of emerging technologies like generative AI. Nearly one in four workers may see their jobs transformed by AI, with a higher concentration of medium-skilled and high-skilled jobs at risk of automation.
“While the findings of this report may be sobering, they also offer a roadmap for creating decent jobs,” said Houngbo. He emphasized the importance of urgent action to address these challenges by strengthening social protection systems, investing in skills, and ensuring that technological changes benefit all sectors of society.
