Arif Habib Ltd (AHL) has initiated coverage of Attock Refinery Ltd (ATRL) with a ringing “BUY” and a Rs1,136 per share June-2026 target price – implying 69% upside to last week’s close and valuing the company at barely 3.9 times FY-26 earnings. The house model projects a 36% four-year EPS CAGR, driven by an upgrade that, in the brokerage’s words, could “shift ATRL’s product slate from penalised furnace oil to premium Euro-V motor fuels” and plug an historic profitability gap with southern peers.
The foundation of the call is financial muscle. As at March 2025 ATRL was debt-free and sat on Rs77 billion in cash – equivalent to Rs721 per share or more than one-tenth of the refinery’s replacement cost. Book value stands at Rs1,345 and the working-capital cycle is the least demanding in the sector: local-crude suppliers allow two months’ credit versus the one-month norm enjoyed by hydro-skimming peers. The cash hoard alone could finance 40% of management’s Rs180 billion upgrade budget before a single rupee of project debt is drawn. The content in this publication is expensive to produce. But unlike other journalistic outfits, business publications have to cover the very organizations that directly give them advertisements. Hence, this large source of revenue, which is the lifeblood of other media houses, is severely compromised on account of Profit’s no-compromise policy when it comes to our reporting. No wonder, Profit has lost multiple ad deals, worth tens of millions of rupees, due to stories that held big businesses to account. Hence, for our work to continue unfettered, it must be supported by discerning readers who know the value of quality business journalism, not just for the economy but for the society as a whole.To read the full article, subscribe and support independent business journalism in Pakistan
