The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth outlook for 2025 and 2026, with emerging markets expected to see faster expansion.
In its updated World Economic Outlook, the IMF now expects emerging and developing economies to grow 4.1% in 2025, up from 3.7%. Growth in 2026 is also slightly higher at 4.0%, up from 3.9%.
China led the upgrades, with the IMF raising its forecast to 4.8% growth this year, from a previous estimate of 4.0%. The revision is based on stronger activity in the first half of the year and lower U.S.–China tariffs.
The IMF now assumes an effective U.S. tariff rate of 17.3%, down from 24.4% used in its April forecast.
China posted 5.2% growth in the second quarter, but trade tensions remain. Talks continue in Stockholm as Beijing faces an August 12 deadline to reach a long-term deal with Washington.
Higher tariffs are expected to take effect later this week unless an agreement is reached.
The IMF said the outlook remains uncertain, with risks tilted to the downside due to the fragile state of global trade policies. For Brazil, growth is projected at 2.3% in 2025, compared to 3.4% last year, and could slow further if new U.S. tariffs are imposed.
Globally, the IMF now sees GDP growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Although most countries received upgrades, Russia and South Korea were downgraded. Russia’s economy is forecast to grow 0.9%, down from 1.5%, and South Korea is now expected to expand 0.8% in 2025, down from 1.0%.
