Pakistan’s cement sector is expected to witness a significant month-on-month decline in local dispatches, which are projected to fall by 28% to 2.63 million tons in June 2025. On a year-on-year basis, dispatches are forecast to decline by 15%, primarily due to a reduction in working days during the month as a result of Eid holidays. Daily average sales dropped to 88,000 tons in June compared to 118,000 tons in May.
Provisional data covering 22 days of the month showed local sales at 1.75 million tons, while estimates based on a 29-day period placed total domestic dispatches at approximately 2.5 million tons. This is lower than the 11-month average of 3.06 million tons for FY25, reflecting subdued demand during the month. The year-on-year decline is also attributed to a high base in June 2024, when sales were boosted by advance purchases ahead of a federal excise duty increase from Rs2 to Rs4 per bag.
Cement exports for June 2025 are projected to rise by 93% year-on-year, though they are expected to decline by 8% on a month-on-month basis. Among major producers, LUCK and ACPL are anticipated to post monthly export growth of 24% and 54% respectively, while DGKC’s exports are expected to fall by 56%.
Total cement sales in June are estimated at 3.54 million tons, flat compared to June 2024 but down 24% compared to the previous month. Capacity utilization for the sector is projected at 52%, down from 68% in May, and similar to the level recorded in June 2024.
For the full fiscal year 2024–25, total cement sales are expected to remain flat year-on-year, with local sales declining by 5% and exports increasing by 30%. Analysts expect improvement in FY26, supported by an anticipated recovery in macroeconomic conditions and lower interest rates.
Retail prices in June showed mixed trends, with a 2% month-on-month decline in the North and a 2% increase in the South. On a year-on-year basis, prices rose by 6% in the North and 21% in the South.
