One has a hard time believing Finance Minister Ishaq Dar these days. And that does not have to do with any political differences or any doubts regarding his intentions. It is simply a matter of probability.
Ever since he came into the top job at Q block (his third stint no less) the good Senator has consistently proven to be wrong. When he first replaced Miftah Ismail in September last year he came in with the promise of keeping the rupee strong and building a base for the PML-N to build an election campaign on. He has failed on both those accounts.
In his bullheaded attempts he also alienated an IMF that was already quite annoyed with Pakistan’s economic management. Despite tall claims that he would manage the fund and bring the deal home, Dar’s chest thumping only seemed to antagonise the IMF further. By February, Dar was made to eat humble pie when an IMF mission came and left without signing a Staff Level Agreement. In the five months since, Dar and other members of the government including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have regularly claimed that the agreement is “just around the corner.”
As the months have passed by, the credibility of this mantra of “just around the corner” has taken a serious hit.
And now we have arrived at the budget for next year. It is clear that the government has presented a populist budget in the hopes of gaining some support before the elections. It also seems that Dar is now more than ready to burn bridges with the IMF. In an interview right after his budget speech on a private television channel, Dar appeared cornered and erratic. In his post budget presser on Saturday, he seemed more haggard than defiant.
He has claimed of course that following the budget process the government is contemplating discussions with bilateral partners regarding debt restructuring. “As far as Paris Club rescheduling, we have no such plan on our menu. We will not go for rescheduling multilateral debt. We will make the payments on time and when they become due. I don’t think it is a dignified way to go and tell them that we cannot pay. That means you’re declaring yourself that you are not in a position [to pay],” he said.
Right after saying this and assuring the nation that the government had a plan in case the IMF did not come through, Dar claimed that Pakistan will not default, adding that those who talked about default had themselves made mistakes and were complicit in the economic losses incurred by the country.
The claims, of course, are well taken but are hard to believe. Whether Pakistan defaults or not is yet to be seen. What we do know is that the road will not be as simple as the senator claims.
Thora time to lage ga na