Power generation drops 17% in August, capacity charges expected to rise

Electricity generation decreased by 8.9% to 28,059 GWh in the first two months of FY2024-25

Power generation in Pakistan declined by 17.4% year-on-year in August 2024, falling to 13,179 GWh compared to 15,959 GWh in the same period last year. 

Power generation also fell 11.4% on a month-on-month basis compared to July when it recorded 14,880 GWh. This trend marks the second consecutive month of reduced energy output.

For the first two months of the fiscal year (2MFY25), power generation decreased by 8.9% year-on-year to 28,059 GWh, compared to 30,798 GWh during the same period last year. 

This decline is expected to lead to higher capacity charges in the second quarter of FY25, as the actual power generation in August was 13.1% lower than the reference generation.

The data breakdown indicates that hydel power generation fell by 10.7% year-on-year, reaching 5,362 GWh in August 2024, compared to 6,006 GWh in the same month last year. 

Nuclear power experienced a sharper drop of 37.6%, falling to 1,170 GWh in August 2024 from 1,874 GWh in August 2023. 

RLNG generation also witnessed a significant decrease, dropping by 20.8% year-on-year to 2,100 GWh from 2,652 GWh.

Local and imported gas generation declined as well, with local gas recording a 21.3% year-on-year drop to 961 GWh, and imported gas decreasing by 23.1% to 680 GWh. 

In contrast, coal-based power generation from local sources showed a slight increase of 1.7%, producing 1,263 GWh in August 2024 compared to 1,242 GWh in the previous year. 

Solar power also increased by 9.9%, generating 110 GWh in August 2024, up from 100 GWh in August 2023.

Fuel costs for power generation showed considerable variation, with furnace oil costs decreasing by 33.02% to Rs30.32 per kWh in August 2024. 

The cost of imported coal, however, rose by 13.55% to Rs25.08 per kWh, while RLNG costs dropped by 13.46% to Rs16.25 per kWh. Local gas saw a modest increase in cost, rising 5.6% to Rs12.48 per kWh in August.

Overall, the average fuel cost per kWh stood at Rs7.49 in August 2024, representing an 8.72% reduction from Rs8.21 per kWh in August 2023. 

The decline in power generation, coupled with fuel cost fluctuations, reflects the ongoing challenges in the energy sector. The downward trend in production and increased capacity charges are expected to continue affecting the sector in the months ahead.

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