ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has finalized the 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-29), aiming to position the economy at a $1 trillion valuation by 2035. Developed by the Ministry of Planning, the blueprint sets ambitious goals, including reducing poverty, increasing literacy rates, and significantly boosting IT exports. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to unveil the plan soon. However, the implementation of these objectives faces hurdles, particularly due to the restrictive social media firewall introduced by the government.
Replacing an earlier strategy devised by UK-based economist Stefan Dercon, which failed to gain momentum, the new plan outlines a more comprehensive framework. Despite this shift, some officials advocate launching both documents simultaneously, pointing to substantial resources invested in promoting Dercon’s fiscal strategy. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal emphasized the need for a long-term vision, urging Pakistan to define its economic trajectory for 2047, the country’s centennial year. The minister described the 5Es framework as a strategic document, complementing the fiscal roadmap proposed by Dercon.
A critical focus of the plan is the growth of Pakistan’s IT and freelancing exports, with a target of $5 billion by 2029. The broader export goals are set at $60 billion within the same timeframe. The strategy includes the production of 75,000 IT graduates annually, broadband expansion to 135 million subscriptions, and the establishment of over 100 software technology parks. It also envisions creating Pakistan’s first unicorn company, with a market valuation of $1 billion, and achieving a 178% increase in IT exports.
These targets, however, are at odds with the restrictive social media firewall, which was implemented to counter anti-government propaganda. Critics argue that this measure hampers Pakistan’s IT growth and digital connectivity. Daniel Castro, Vice President of the US-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, highlighted that such policies undermine economic progress, as unrestricted digital access is essential for fostering a competitive digital economy.
The plan sets a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8%, projecting the $1 trillion milestone by 2035. It also seeks to increase renewable energy’s share to over 10%, eliminate circular debt, and reduce subsidies to stabilize the energy sector. The railway’s freight transport share is expected to rise from 8% to 25%, facilitated by the $7 billion Mainline-I initiative under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Additionally, the plan includes commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and address water scarcity to mitigate food insecurity.
In the social sector, the plan promises to create 1.5 million jobs annually, enhance healthcare coverage by 12%, and improve the completion rates of primary and secondary education to 28% and 43%, respectively. It aims to raise the literacy rate to 70% within five years, addressing a long-standing challenge in the country.
Despite its ambitions, the plan acknowledges significant obstacles, including stagnant growth, declining productivity, outdated industrial practices, and climate vulnerabilities. The Ministry of Planning emphasizes the need to shift from a “security state” to a rule-based democratic society to unlock Pakistan’s potential.
The five-year plan will serve as a unified framework for government ministries and provincial authorities, aligning efforts to make Pakistan one of the world’s top ten economies by 2047. Achieving these ambitious goals, however, hinges on overcoming policy constraints and enhancing infrastructure, particularly in the IT and digital sectors.
