Pakistan faces a looming water crisis that could escalate into conflicts over resources if urgent measures are not taken to regulate distribution and extraction. Basharat Ahmed Saeed, Senior Water Specialist at the World Bank Group, issued this warning during a seminar on water security organized by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), according to a news report.
He highlighted the alarming rate of groundwater depletion, warning that Pakistan could exhaust its groundwater reserves by 2030 and surface water by 2037 due to unchecked agricultural usage.
Saeed explained that while the country has not yet faced extreme shortages, excessive and unregulated water usage is pushing Pakistan toward a crisis. If the situation persists, industries, urban centers, and the agricultural sector will compete for limited water resources, leading to conflicts. By 2030, any additional water extraction will effectively take away supplies meant for other users, exacerbating tensions.
He cautioned that Pakistan is moving toward a scenario where disputes over every drop of water could become a reality. Signs of this crisis are already emerging in Sindh, where growing water scarcity has led to local disputes.
Participants at the seminar emphasised the need for better water storage facilities, stricter regulation of water usage, and the creation of a structured water market.
According to Saeed, while Pakistan’s overall water availability has remained stable, climate variability has significantly altered rainfall patterns, particularly monsoons and winter precipitation. Rising temperatures are expected to drive up demand for water by as much as 58%, while natural water losses in the lower Indus Basin will increase.
He further noted that in the next 30 years, Pakistan will need to reallocate 10% of its irrigation withdrawals—approximately 12 billion cubic meters (BCM)—to meet the growing demand for non-agricultural water consumption.
Additionally, the country must prepare for more frequent extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and rising sea levels, which pose significant risks to coastal regions in Sindh and Balochistan.
