Pakistan’s cotton crop is facing serious challenges due to severe water shortages in major dams and the unavailability of certified seeds, raising concerns about the upcoming harvest.
The crisis has also slowed down cotton trade activity, prompting farmers’ organizations to call on the government to focus on ensuring water supply to already cultivated lands rather than expanding new agricultural areas.
With the country’s two major dams nearly depleted, canal water shortages have hit several districts of Sindh, including Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, and Badin. Mangla Dam reached its dead level of 1,050 feet on March 15, while Tarbela Dam was just one foot above its dead level of 1,402 feet by March 18.
The worsening water crisis is expected to delay the arrival of the new cotton crop, which could push domestic cotton prices higher.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsan ul Haq noted that advance cotton trade deals, which had gained momentum in recent weeks, are now facing delays. Around 40 trucks loaded with cotton had been traded at prices ranging from Rs8,400 to Rs9,000 per 40 kg for delivery between May 10 and June 10, mostly in the Digri area of Mirpur Khas.
However, the uncertainty surrounding water availability has raised doubts about whether these transactions will be completed on time, bringing new cotton trade in Sindh to a halt.
Adding to the concerns, adverse weather conditions have significantly reduced the germination rate of cotton seeds, which has fallen to 40-50%, far below the required 75% for certification. As a result, many farmers are turning to non-certified seeds, which could impact cotton yields.
Kissan Ittehad General Secretary Mian Umair Masood has urged the federal government to temporarily lower the germination rate requirement for certified seeds to 50% for one year to encourage farmers to use them.
Meanwhile, key policy measures aimed at reviving cotton cultivation remain unimplemented. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s committees recommended steps such as abolishing the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS) and reducing electricity tariffs for textile exporters.
The EFS, which allows duty-free imports of cotton and cotton yarn, has negatively impacted the domestic textile and ginning sectors. Industry experts warn that if these issues are not addressed, more spinning mills and ginning factories could shut down by 2025-26.
The EFS has also contributed to increased foreign exchange expenditure, and a decline in domestic cotton cultivation may further strain the economy by increasing edible oil imports and reducing tax revenues for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).
Despite the challenges, agriculture authorities in Punjab are pushing for early cotton sowing as a potential solution. In a recent review meeting, chaired by Secretary of Agriculture Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, officials assessed progress on early cotton sowing over one million acres.
To encourage farmers, the government is offering financial assistance of Rs25,000 to those who complete early sowing on at least five acres by March 31.
