KARACHI: Pakistan’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation for May 2025 is expected to clock in at 3.0% year-on-year (YoY), marking a sharp deceleration from previous months, according to projections by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) based on two weeks of Sensitive Price Index (SPI) data.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, CPI is forecast to decline by 0.61%, largely driven by a 1.9% drop in food prices, a 0.8% decline in transportation costs, and a 0.7% fall in housing-related expenses.
This marks one of the lowest monthly inflation prints in recent years, with AHL’s base-case estimates placing the May YoY figure at 3.01%. A sensitivity analysis shows that CPI could range between 2.1% and 5.2% YoY depending on final price movements during the month.
The figures suggest a continuation of disinflationary momentum, raising expectations of a monetary policy response as the central bank eyes easing inflationary pressures ahead of its next rate review.
