SBP raises foreign exchange reserves forecast for FY26 to $17.8 billion

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has increased its foreign exchange reserves forecast for fiscal year 2026 to $17.8 billion, up from its previous estimate of $17.5 billion. 

This revision follows a controlled current account deficit and the realisation of planned official inflows, according to the central bank’s monetary policy statement.

SBP projects its foreign exchange reserves will reach $15.5 billion by December 2025 and $17.8 billion by June 2026. As of October 17, the bank’s reserves stood at $14.5 billion, despite the repayment of a $500 million Eurobond.

The central bank reported that it has purchased over $20 billion from the interbank market over the past three years, with purchases continuing after fulfilling repayment and repatriation requirements. 

SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad also noted that Pakistan is expected to receive $1.2 billion in payments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the IMF board meeting in December.

Pakistan recently reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) reviews. This agreement is expected to lead to a $1 billion tranche from the EFF and an additional $200 million from the RSF, subject to IMF executive board approval.

Looking ahead, the SBP expects the current account deficit to remain within the previously projected range of zero to 1.0% of GDP for FY26. The central bank also forecasted remittances to exceed $41 billion in FY26, up from $38 billion in FY25.

On imports, SBP stated that the discrepancy between import data reported by the SBP and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is due to differing data sources, but this is expected to normalize over time. 

While the central bank does not foresee issues with current import levels, it cautioned that significant fluctuations in oil prices could raise concerns regarding future import costs.