The Pakistani rupee continued to strengthen against the US dollar, with dealers expecting a brief slip below Rs280 by month-end. Market sentiment improved after a $3 billion rollover from Saudi Arabia, providing support to the local currency.
Currency experts warned that further devaluation may not aid exports, citing previous sharp drops from Rs180 to Rs300 over two years that failed to generate meaningful export growth or structural trade improvements.
During the current fiscal year, the rupee has gradually gained, rising from Rs284.27 on July 31 to Rs280.42 last week. Analysts noted that the US dollar has weakened around 12 percent against major global currencies, contributing to local stability.
Exports fell 15.4 percent in November, swelling the trade deficit for the first five months of FY26 to $37.2 billion and adding pressure to the current account. Experts said temporary dips below Rs280 are possible, but significant depreciation could destabilize export-based industries.
Analysts emphasized that structural reforms and productivity improvements, rather than currency adjustments, are critical for sustainable export growth, and reliance on Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) alone is insufficient to gauge competitiveness.
