ISLAMABAD, May 20 — Pakistan’s economy is projected to grow by 2.68% in the fiscal year 2024-25, significantly below the government’s target of 3.6%, according to provisional estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Monday.
The committee, which convened to review national output data for the current fiscal year, also approved a provisional GDP growth rate of 2.40% for the third quarter (January–March) of FY25. Additionally, it revised growth figures for the first two quarters downward.
As per the updated estimates, first-quarter GDP growth (July–September 2024) has been revised to 1.37% from the earlier estimate of 1.34%, while second-quarter growth (October–December 2024) has been adjusted to 1.53% from the previously reported 1.73%. These revisions reflect lower-than-anticipated performance in key sectors, particularly agriculture and large-scale manufacturing.
The full-year growth estimate of 2.68% underscores the economy’s sluggish recovery in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates, and ongoing structural challenges. Despite slight improvements in quarterly momentum—evident in the 2.40% growth for 3QFY25—the economy remains under pressure from persistent fiscal and external imbalances.
In the previous fiscal year (FY24), Pakistan’s economy grew by 0.3%, as reported by the NAC in May 2024. The government had set a more ambitious 3.6% growth target for FY25 in the Annual Plan 2024–25, banking on a recovery in agriculture and stabilisation in energy and external sectors.
However, the provisional data now suggests that despite marginal gains, the overall economic performance continues to fall short of planned targets. The NAC will revisit these figures again at the end of FY25 when final estimates are prepared.
