Pakistan’s cotton production for the 2025-26 season is expected to decline by 10-15% compared to the previous year, despite a strong start to the season, according to data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA).
As of October 31, 2025, ginning factories across the country had received a total of 4.437 million bales, a modest 3% increase from the same period last year. This increase follows a robust early season performance, with cotton arrivals up 49% year-on-year by September 30. However, from October 16 to 31, the volume of cotton arrivals dropped by 46% compared to the previous year.
The slowdown in arrivals during the latter part of October has raised concerns about the overall cotton output for the season, with experts warning that total production may fall well below last year’s levels. This could force textile mills to import more cotton to meet export orders.
During the period under review, textile mills purchased 3.59 million bales, while exporters bought 153,000 bales. Approximately 694,000 bales remain unsold. In terms of regional production, Punjab’s ginning units received 1.909 million bales, up 4% from the previous year, while Sindh’s factories received 2.528 million bales, an increase of 3%.
The early season growth in cotton production was attributed to high temperatures and early sowing in Punjab, which helped bring in the cotton harvest earlier than usual. However, the significant late-season decline has undermined initial optimism for a recovery in cotton output.
Experts are increasingly concerned about rising import dependence, with mills potentially turning to more expensive U.S. cotton due to uncertainties surrounding Brazilian supplies and difficulties with Afghan imports caused by border instability.
Furthermore, there is growing concern over weak enforcement of crop zoning laws, particularly the lack of restrictions on sugarcane farming in cotton zones, which may hinder government-backed efforts to revive the industry. The closure of HVI testing laboratories has also limited local ginners’ access to critical services.
Adding to the uncertainty, discrepancies between the PCGA and Crop Reporting Service (CRS) Punjab figures have raised concerns, with the PCGA reporting 1.909 million bales for Punjab by October 31, while the CRS estimates 3.5 million bales. This gap could lead to inaccuracies in policy and market planning, according to industry observers.
