Country’s CPI surges by 4.4pc in January 2018

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KARACHI: Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 4.4 per cent on year-on-year basis in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 4.6 per cent in the previous month and 3.7 per cent in January 2017. Meanwhile inflation enhanced according to the analyst’s forecast in between 4.3-4.5 per cent.

On month-on-month basis, it remained unchanged in January 2018 as compared to a decrease of 0.1 per cent in the previous month and increase of 0.2 per cent in January 2017.

The analysts further forecasted that the CPI inflation would further surge as the government has once again increased prices of petroleum products. According to SBP, the average headline inflation remains within the forecast range, but core inflation has continued to increase. Average headline inflation for the first half 2017-18 remained at 3.8 per cent.

Core inflation measured by non-food non-energy CPI (Core NFNE) increased by 5.2 per cent on YoY basis in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 5.5 per cent in the previous month and 5.4 per cent in January 2017. On MoM basis, it increased by 0.8 per cent in January 2018 as compared to increase of 0.2 per cent in previous month, and an increase of 1.1  per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. January 2017.

Core inflation, measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean CPI (Core Trimmed) increased by 4.6 per cent on YoY basis in January 2018 as compared to 4.7 per cent in the previous month and by 3.8 per cent in January 2017.

On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.6 per cent in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 0.2 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.6 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. January 2017.

Meanwhile, core inflation (non-food-non-energy) continued to maintain its higher trajectory, and clocked in at 5.5 per cent during the first half of the year as compared to 4.9 per cent last year. This together with a lagged impact of Pak-rupee depreciation and rising international oil prices are likely to increase inflation in the coming months, the SBP said.

SPI inflation on YoY increased by 2.0 per cent in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 2.2 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 0.4 per cent in January 2017. On MoM basis, it decreased by 1.0 per cent in January 2018 as compared to a decrease of 0.7 per cent a month earlier and a decrease of 0.8 per cent in January 2017.

WPI inflation on YoY basis increased by 4.7 per cent in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 3.4 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 4.2 per cent in January 2017. WPI inflation on MoM basis increased by 1.8 per cent in January 2018 as compared to an increase of 0.4 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 0.5 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. January 2017.