Political conditions can hamper Pakistan’s economic outlook, says finance ministry

The finance ministry maintained that domestic political conditions can not only further hamper the positive outlook of Pakistan’s economy but also aggravate the macroeconomic imbalances.

The finance ministry stated in its monthly Economic Update and Outlook March 2022 that Pakistan’s economic performance remained strong and is still on a trajectory compatible with an economic growth target of around 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and if this trend continues in the next months, economic growth will be driven primarily by the expansion of manufacturing capacity. 

It also stated that inflation and the current account deficit are still under pressure and the government is taking measures to limit as much as possible further increases in the cost of living in the coming months.

Moreover, the government measures designed to stimulate exports and discourage unnecessary imports are expected to contribute to constrain current account deficit. 

The monthly report mentioned that the production of wheat is expected to be near the allocated target of 28.9 million tons with improved inputs availability of seeds and pesticides, irrigation water and increased agriculture credit disbursement. Additionally, the government has increased the wheat support price from Rs1,950 to Rs2,200 per 40 kg.

Similarly, the Large Scale Manifesting side, during July to January FY 2022, was recorded at 7.6 per cent against 1.8 per cent last year with car production and sales increased by 61.6 per cent and 57.5 per cent, respectively. 

The ministry of finance said that remittances have increased to $20.1billion in the first eight months which was $18.7 billion from July to February 2022.

In addition, exports have recorded $20.6 billion (28 per cent increase) whereas  imports surged to $47.9 billion in eight months.

Whereas, the current account deficit (CAD) recorded $12.1billion from July to February.

The report states that the total foreign investment including FDI as well as portfolio investment surged to $1.8 billion comparable to $799 million in eight months of last year. FBR revenue was recorded Rs3,802 billion whereas non-tax revenue and PSDP witnessed declines by 16 per cent and 21 per cent respectively in the first eight months.

On the other hand, the fiscal deficit also surged to Rs1862 billion comparable to Rs1309 billion from July 2021 to February 2022.

The agriculture credit also witnessed an increase by 3.6 per cent to Rs835 billion, credit to private sector Rs873.3 billion, policy rate 9.75 per cent, CPI 12.2 per cent, large scale manufacturing 8.2 per cent.

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