The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia indicates that Saudi Arabia is sensing a legitimate threat of direct action from Israel.
The emergency meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Doha ended with condemnations of the Israeli attack on Qatar and calls on the Trump Administration to rein in the Netanyahu government, but without a decision on any sort of joint GCC military retaliation against Israel.
As the senior partner in the GCC, Saudi Arabia’s cooperation would have been vital in any such response. The group settled for a joint defence agreement but no immediate action. Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman also met with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the summit, and another meeting between the two was scheduled for just four days later in Riyadh.
The visuals of the Prime Minister’s aircraft being escorted by Saudi fighter jets upon entering the Kingdom’s airspace have gone viral for a reason: such protocol has been unheard of before this. It became immediately clear why this was the case when the two leaders signed an agreement of mutual defence. Very simply put, the agreement binds Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to act in each other’s defence. An attack on one is to be treated as an attack on the other.
It is not unimportant in this context that Israeli officials have been mentioning Pakistan by name through different diplomatic channels. The country’s main defence of their attack on Doha was to point towards the US operation in Abbottabad which found and killed Osama Bin Laden. Pakistan’s representatives to the UN have been responding robustly to such claims. However, it is clear that Israel is baiting Pakistan on some level. The impunity with which the US has allowed Israel to make a mockery of international law will only embolden them further. The Gulf Arab states, it seems, are realising they need to diversify their security guarantees.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have long shared a security-partnership and trade relationship. Pakistan has helped Saudi Arabia militarily for many decades now. Most people know that Pakistani SSG Commandos participated in lifting the siege of Makkah in 1979, but that was not where the cooperation ended. Tens of thousands of Pakistani troops remained in Saudi Arabia during the Iran-Iraq war, with most recalled in 1988, though a smaller contingent stayed. In 2015, Pakistan’s parliament rejected Saudi’s request for troops in Yemen, but the relationship remained intact. Pakistan still provided some naval support, and both countries held joint military exercises. Former Pakistani Army Chief Raheel Sharif later led the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance, and Saudi troops participated in Pakistan’s 2017 Day Parade. In February 2018, the Pakistani military sent a brigade to Saudi Arabia.
This latest defence pact is the formal declaration of the relationship the two countries have maintained over the years. Its timing is meant to be a signal to Israel. The situation in the Middle East is developing rapidly. Even as the people of Gaza suffer what has now been called by the UN a brutal genocide, the attack on Qatar marks the first aggression against a mainstream Arab Gulf country by the Israelis. It has shattered the illusion of US security.
Read more: The ‘stable’ Gulf is gone. What comes next?
Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has provided security to the Gulf region because of its vast supplies of oil. The presence of the US navy has ensured the security of this oil’s supply chain and US diplomacy has maintained the security of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and other oil rich gulf regions. Pakistan has indirectly benefitted from this security. Pakistanis have invested heavily in the UAE by buying property there. Many Pakistani expats work in the Gulf and send back remittances to Pakistan which are one of the largest sources of foreign exchange coming into the country. This has only been made possible by the guarantee of security provided by the US. But American interests have shifted. The shale revolution in the US means the Gulf is no longer an important source of oil for them, and most of the US interest in the Gulf is because of the oil the region provides to Europe.
In the aftermath of Israel’s strikes on Doha, it became clear that Pakistan would receive interest from the Gulf countries for defence cooperation. What was not expected was how quickly the first formal agreement would come about.
Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has far more historic context, which is perhaps why the agreement has come so quickly. With the rest of the Gulf the leadership will have to work a little harder. Pakistan is clearly enjoying a moment where it is getting some interest in defence collaboration from the Gulf Arab countries, but it would be wise to offer help without seeming too eager or too desperate for Arab cash — which can be off putting for partners in the Gulf.
Security cooperation is doubly important for Pakistan because of its rapidly souring relationship with India. The conflict in May instigated by the Modi government ended up elevating Pakistan’s position on the world stage. The dog fights between Indian and Pakistani pilots have been taken as proof of the capability of Chinese military technology. It has also reminded the world that while Pakistan might be mired in deep economic distress and political chaos, it is a formidable fighting force. However, Pakistan has suffered in previous military engagements as well because its economic issues make it difficult to sustain a long drawn out fight. The formalisation of Saudi support means that India will now have another threat to worry about before launching any sort of action against Pakistan.
The true success of this agreement will be if it is not tested in the first place. The hope from both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will be that the agreement will be enough of a deterrent for both India and Israel. However, if push comes to shove, both countries must remember that the first instance where one is harmed will be crucial. If Saudi Arabia is attacked, for example, a rapid response from Pakistan will let the world know this partnership means business.
Pakistan’s leadership must also remember that the defence pact with Saudi Arabia must not be the end of our cooperation and involvement in the Gulf region. It was a positive indication that the prime minister immediately visited Qatar following the Israeli attack on Doha and met with the Qatari Emir. Among the many global leaders that visited the Emir in the aftermath of the attacks, Pakistan was the only country with whom the Emir said Qatar would find “pathways to resolve conflicts and maintain the security of the region and the area.”
The one key missing factor here is the United Arab Emirates. Of all the Gulf countries, the UAE is probably the one that has invested the most time and resources in normalising the relationship with Israel. Not only have the two states established diplomatic relations since 2020, they have also had some level of military cooperation. In 2022, barely a year before the Gaza genocide began, the UAE and Israel also agreed to a free trade agreement.
At the end of the recent GCC summit in Doha, the Gulf countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, formed a defence pact to address the security concerns of the member states. Pakistan must now make sure it balances its relationships with these countries both because of the regional security implications and its own deep economic interests in the Gulf.
