ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025 is projected to range between 2.0% and 2.5% year-on-year (YoY), with no significant change month-on-month (MoM), according to a report by brokerage firm Topline Securities.
This will bring the average inflation for the first eight months of FY25 to 6.07%, a significant drop from the 27.96% recorded during the same period in FY24.
In February 2025, food inflation is expected to decrease by 0.4% MoM, primarily driven by a sharp 55% drop in tomato prices, a 27% fall in onion prices, and a 21% reduction in potato prices. However, prices for fresh fruits and sugar are anticipated to rise by 9-15%.
The housing, water, electricity, and gas segment is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.2% MoM, attributed to an 8% decrease in LPG prices and a 0.5% dip in electricity prices, driven by a higher negative fuel cost adjustment (FCA).
Meanwhile, the transport sector is projected to see a 1.2% MoM increase due to a 2-4% rise in petrol and diesel prices.
For the entire fiscal year 2025, the brokerage firm has maintained its inflation forecast at 6.0-7.0%. However, the report notes that any significant fluctuations in commodity prices, such as oil prices deviating from the current $75 per barrel, could lead to changes in inflation projections.
