An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team is scheduled to visit Pakistan on September 25, 2025, for the second semi-annual review of the $7-billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The review will assess Pakistan’s economic performance for the March and June 2025 quarters, with expectations that the country will meet all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC), including net international reserves and SWAP positions, according to Topline Securities.
Successful completion of the review will pave the way for the IMF Board’s approval of a $1 billion tranche. Pakistan has already received over $2 billion in two previous installments.
The report by Topline Securities suggests that the primary balance for FY25 aligns with IMF targets, although data on government guarantees remains undisclosed. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor indicated readiness to present its performance for the review but did not confirm whether all SBP-related targets had been met.
The review will also likely focus on the targets for the rest of FY26, with discussions expected to consider the impact of recent floods in Pakistan. The floods have caused significant damage, killing 972 people and destroying crops, livestock, and homes, particularly in Punjab, with the disaster now moving into Sindh. The floods are expected to contribute to increased food inflation and further strain Pakistan’s finances.
In light of these challenges, the government is reportedly considering revising key economic projections. GDP growth is expected to be revised down to 3% from 4%, inflation targets raised to 8%, and Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax targets adjusted to Rs 13.7–13.9 trillion, down from Rs 14.13 trillion.
The IMF’s Resident Representative to Pakistan emphasized that the review will be crucial in assessing Pakistan’s financial capacity to respond to the ongoing disaster. Topline Securities indicated that the IMF and the government are likely to reach a consensus on revised economic projections, with fiscal deficit and inflation targets expected to rise, and potential adjustments to GDP and FBR revenue targets.
