IMF projects Pakistan’s government net debt to rise to 65.7% of GDP in 2026

ISLAMABAD — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 0.4 percentage point increase in Pakistan’s government net debt, rising from 65.3% of GDP in 2025 to 65.7% in 2026, according to its report Fiscal Monitor: Spending Smarter.

The report projects a slight decline in gross government debt from 71.6% of GDP in 2025 to 71.3% in 2026. Government expenditure is expected to fall from 21.1% of GDP in 2025 to 20.4% in 2026, while revenue is projected to increase to 16.2% of GDP, up from 15.7% in 2025 and 12.7% in 2024.

The IMF expects Pakistan’s primary balance to reach 2.5% of GDP in 2026, compared with 2.4% in 2025, and the overall government balance is projected at -4.1% for 2026, improving from -5.3% in 2025.

The report also notes that Pakistan’s debt to average maturity is estimated at 14.2% of GDP in 2025, the projected interest rate–growth differential from 2025–30 is -1.2%, and non-resident holdings of general government debt in 2024 are projected at 28.6% of the total.