In the final months of 2025, Pakistan’s agricultural sector was shaken by a crisis that not only devastated crops but also brought attention to the growing tensions over water control in the region. The Chenab River, a vital artery for Punjab’s agriculture, swelled to catastrophic levels, flooding thousands of acres of farmland that were supposed to be nourished by the river’s steady flow. What caused this sudden surge? India’s decision to release large volumes of water from its upstream reservoirs, triggered by severe flooding within India’s own borders. This was a necessary move for India, forced by its own monsoon rains and flood management needs. But for Pakistan, the release highlighted a much more serious issue—the increasing unpredictability of water flow from shared rivers, especially the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus, all of which flow from India into Pakistan.
India’s sudden water release was not the problem per se. The issue lies in India’s failure to notify Pakistan, as stipulated under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). Under the IWT, India is required to inform Pakistan before releasing significant amounts of water, a crucial provision designed to prevent agricultural disasters like the one that just occurred.
Over the past week, we have once again seen the issue of water take centre stage between India and Pakistan. Irregular changes in the flow of the Chenab and Jhelum have left the wheat crop in some regions severely strained. On December 14th, the inflows and outflows of the Jhelum River at Mangla stood at 5,000 and 33,000 cusecs, respectively. However, inflows decreased to 3,300 cusecs on December 15 and remained at that level until December 19, while outflows remained at 33,000 cusecs. Water flow at the same time last year was recorded at inflows of 4,400 cusecs and outflows of 25,000 cusecs.The office of the Pakistan Commissioner on Indus Waters said that the Jhelum River was experiencing reduced inflow from upstream in India to downstream at Mangla Dam.
“It is really serious and alarming because around 15 million of the total 25 million acres of agricultural land, which is irrigated through various canals, is receiving either less water or no water these days,” a senior official of the irrigation department explained, expressing concern.
The foreign office’s swift response—issuing a formal letter to India on December 19, 2025, seeking clarification—was an urgent attempt to address not just the immediate damage, but the growing risk posed by India’s failure to follow treaty guidelines.
This incident, while part of the broader environmental issues caused by climate change and unpredictable weather patterns, also underscored the geopolitical reality at play: India controls the taps of the Indus River Basin, and Pakistan is left dependent on India’s compliance with the treaty to secure water for its agriculture and people. However, this water dispute is not merely an agricultural issue—it is a matter of national security. Water is the lifeblood of Pakistan’s agriculture, and disruptions to the flow of water threaten not just food security but the very stability of the nation.
A diplomatic anchor come loose
To begin to understand what is happening, we need to go back more than 85 years. The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, has long been regarded as one of the world’s most successful and resilient international agreements. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank, was the result of years of political negotiations between India and Pakistan to resolve their differences over the shared waters of the Indus River Basin. The agreement allocated control over six rivers in the basin, with India retaining rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan receiving rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). This division of water was seen as a diplomatic triumph, averting conflict over a resource that both countries depended upon.
For Pakistan, this treaty was of paramount importance. The Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers provide around 80% of Pakistan’s water supply, much of which is used for irrigation. Pakistan’s agricultural sector—which employs over 40% of the population and contributes 24% to the country’s GDP—is heavily reliant on these rivers. Without the guaranteed flow of these rivers, Pakistan’s economy and food security would be decimated.
In contrast, India’s control of the upper reaches of the rivers grants it significant power over Pakistan’s water supply. However, the IWT was designed to ensure that India’s power to control the flow of these rivers was tempered by strict rules: India could use the water for hydropower generation and non-consumptive purposes, but it could not divert or store water for consumptive purposes without proper consultation with Pakistan. This system of water sharing has largely held, despite the periodic tensions that arise between the two countries, including wars, disputes over Kashmir, and escalating geopolitical tensions.
India’s compliance with the treaty was seen as essential for peace and cooperation in the region. While Pakistan’s dependence on these rivers was evident, India’s ability to control the flow was also recognised as a strategic advantage. The treaty was not merely about water; it was about maintaining a fragile peace that allowed both nations to coexist despite their deep political and territorial differences. Yet, as recent events have shown, this peace is increasingly fragile, and the stability once afforded by the treaty is under threat.
In April 2025, following the Pahalgam attack that killed several Indian nationals, India’s government made an unprecedented move. It announced that it was placing the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance. This decision was, on the surface, a response to security concerns following the terrorist attack. However, the implications were far-reaching. By suspending the treaty, India essentially signaled its intent to disregard the established framework for water sharing between the two nations, throwing into question the very stability of the relationship.
For Pakistan, this was a direct challenge to its survival. The Indus Basin—which sustains the livelihoods of millions of Pakistanis—was suddenly under the control of an India that was now willing to manipulate water flows to suit its own needs. While the IWT had been respected for more than six decades, India’s actions revealed how vulnerable Pakistan is to India’s whims. As the upstream country, India holds the keys to the water flow, and its decision to withhold or release water can have devastating consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and economy.
While India’s power to withhold water entirely is not feasible in the short term—it would require decades of infrastructure development and billions of dollars in investments—the threat of water manipulation is real. India’s ability to disrupt water flow, even without full-scale diversion or damming, already presents significant challenges for Pakistan’s agricultural sector. The Indus Water Treaty was designed to prevent such manipulation, but as Indiaincreasingly flexes its political muscle, the question remains: how much longer can Pakistan rely on the treaty’s framework?
The growing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan have made water control a more potent tool of political leverage than ever before. India’s release of water without proper consultation with Pakistan in recent months has exacerbated the risks associated with water management. Pakistan’s agriculture, economy, and national security are all tied to the steady flow of water from these rivers, and any disruption could spell disaster for the nation.
The human cost of playing with water
The 2025 monsoon season has been particularly devastating. In India, the Chenab and Jhelum rivers swelled due to heavy rainfall, and the Indian government released water from its upstream reservoirs to prevent flooding within its own borders. While this move was necessary for India, it was a decision that came at a severe cost to Pakistan. The floodwaters that India released, without warning, inundated farmland in central Punjab, wiping out wheat crops just before harvest.
The unilateral release of water, though justified on the grounds of India’s own flooding crisis, violated the terms of the Indus Water Treaty, which mandates that Pakistan be notified in advance of such releases. Information sharing is vital in these situations.
In Punjab, particularly in areas like Hafizabad and Jhang, farmers were left devastated as the floodwaters swallowed fields that were meant to nourish the country. With Pakistan’s agricultural system heavily dependent on the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum, these water disruptions have a far-reaching impact. The floods in Punjab displaced over 250,000 people, and the aftermath has left farmers scrambling for assistance as the water flows damaged irrigation channels, homes, and vital infrastructure.
The lack of prior notification by India, a breach of the IWT, exacerbated the crisis. While Pakistan was scrambling to cope with the floodwaters, India, who had been in control of the water releases, left Pakistan vulnerable, with no way to predict or manage the surge of water.
India’s posturing over water is not new, but its recent withdrawal from the treaty has shifted the balance of power in the region. India’s control over the headwaters of the Indus River Basin has long been a source of leverage, but this strategic power has been tempered by the treaty. The Indus Water Treaty was designed to ensure that both countries had fair access to water, and it included provisions to prevent the manipulation of water flows for political gain.
The recent suspension of the treaty, however, has thrown into question the entire framework that has governed water-sharing in the region for decades. If India continues to manipulate water flows or withhold water entirely, Pakistan could find itself facing an existential crisis. With no control over the source of its water and climate change exacerbating the unpredictability of the region’s river systems, Pakistan’s reliance on India’s cooperation has become a serious liability.
While India’s threats to cut off Pakistan’s water may seem like a political move, the geopolitical consequences of such a decision would be immense. If India follows through on its threats to manipulate water flow, it could lead to a regional conflict that would make the Indus Water Treaty seem like a distant memory. The potential for military escalation over water disputes is real. Water is now seen as a strategic resource by both nations, and as tensions rise, the danger of conflict grows.
Deathground for Pakistan—A Future at Risk
Water is no longer just a natural resource for Pakistan; it is a matter of survival. The recent water disruptions have shown that Pakistan’s agricultural economy, its food security, and its national sovereignty are now dependent on India’s willingness to abide by the terms of the Indus Water Treaty.
If India continues to manipulate water flows, Pakistan will have no choice but to fight for its life. The success of Pakistan’s military in the May 2025 conflict demonstrated that Pakistan will not back down when its survival is at stake. The Indus Water Treaty has been the framework for peace and stability in the region, but as India pushes the limits of the treaty, the risk of conflict over water becomes more real. Water is Deathground for Pakistan—and the stakes have never been higher.
As climate change, geopolitical shifts, and water scarcity begin to define the future of the Indus Basin, one thing is clear: Pakistan’s struggle to secure its water supply is far from over. The question is no longer just about sharing resources—it’s about how long Pakistan can survive without a fair and cooperative arrangement governing the shared waters of the Indus Basin.
