Urea sales in Pakistan for July 2024 are projected to reach 611,000 tons, marking a 3% decline year-over-year from 629,000 tons in July 2023. Despite this decrease, sales are expected to rise by 27% month-over-month due to seasonal factors.
Research by Topline Securities reveals that the first seven months of 2024, total urea sales are anticipated to hit 3.648 million tons, down 2% from 3.73 million tons during the same period in 2023. This decline in sales is expected to reduce the closing inventory of urea to approximately 401,000 tons by June 2024, down from 430,000 tons in June 2023.
Among the major players, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is predicted to see a year-over-year decrease of 7%, with sales projected at 247,000 tons for July 2024. However, EFERT’s monthly sales are expected to grow by 59% compared to June 2024, following a nearly three-week plant shutdown for maintenance.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to report July sales of 211,000 tons, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase. In contrast, FATIMA Fertilizer’s sales are projected to fall by 10% year-over-year to 93,000 tons, while Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) anticipates a 4% year-over-year decrease, with sales estimated at 37,000 tons.
In the DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) sector, sales for July 2024 are forecasted to reach 161,000 tons, up 43% year-over-year and 31% month-over-month. This increase is expected to bring total DAP sales for the first seven months of 2024 to 706,000 tons, marking a 12% rise compared to the same period in 2023.
Company-specific projections for DAP sales indicate that FFBL and EFERT will record 87,000 tons and 43,000 tons respectively, while FFC is expected to report 2,000 tons for July 2024.
The closing inventory of DAP is forecasted to be around 103,000 tons in July 2024, a significant decrease from 237,000 tons in July 2023 and 166,000 tons in June 2024.
